COSMO-ECONOMIC SUNSPOT FINANCIAL RESEARCH (CSFR) MODEL
Keywords:
Sunspots Numbers, Behavioral Economic;, Hang Seng Index, Time-series Forecasting, Cosmo-EconomicAbstract
Traditionally, the study of the economy has been divided into two parts: microeconomics and macroeconomics. Nowadays, economists could learn from astronomers about the universe we live in. This article will introduce the idea of "Cosmo-Economic." Some scientists have discovered that sunspots can influence human behavior. Keeping this in mind, this research paper aims to explore how sunspot activity has affected investor sentiment in the financial world since 1970, when the first post-war financial crisis began. The paper discusses the recent surge in the Hong Kong stock market, where the Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 30% in just one week. To analyze this, time series techniques were used to study sunspot counts over the last 38 years alongside three major financial indices: the S&P, FTSE, and Nikkei. Surprisingly, the study found that sunspot counts have a significant impact on these indices, even in daily analysis. Additionally, the HSI during this time serves as a way to validate these findings. Understanding this connection could help predict events leading up to the next global financial crisis expected around 2030.
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